Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211001 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.30     61.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  17.2  16.0  20.3  24.0  24.1  20.8  27.1  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  24.0  13.0  13.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  32.3  19.4   1.0   1.0   1.0  -8.5  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  53.0 112.0 107.0  90.0  96.0  91.0  42.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  61.0  54.0  46.0  49.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  11.0  11.0   5.0   7.0   7.0 -28.0 -14.0  U  U  U  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        1.6%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%        2.4%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%