Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211001 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.80     61.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  21.5  20.4  25.0  25.7  20.0  22.4  26.5  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  13.0  12.0   5.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.3  25.1  12.4   3.0  -7.3  -2.3  -8.9 -33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  85.0 105.0  70.0 126.0  97.0  52.0  20.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  53.0  50.0  45.0  51.0  53.0  51.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   6.0   8.0   1.0   8.0 -22.0 -26.0 -43.0  N  N  U  N  U VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.1%        1.6%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%