Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211001 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60     61.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  21.4  25.9  24.8  22.3  16.2  19.7  36.2  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  12.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         22.9  12.4   1.2  -5.7  -2.3  -5.7 -17.8 -57.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  92.0  72.0  68.0  99.0  84.0  26.0  23.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  51.0  47.0  48.0  54.0  51.0  58.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  11.0   0.0  -1.0  11.0 -39.0 -20.0 -88.0  N  U  N  N  U VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons