Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211001 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.20     61.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  26.4  26.5  27.6  20.6  16.4  23.9  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         10.5  -0.6  -5.7  -5.7  -4.0 -12.0 -27.1 -71.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0  72.0  73.0 101.0  78.0  54.0   9.0   7.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  46.0  44.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  56.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   1.0   7.0 -22.0 -15.0 -34.0-114.0  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons