Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.70     61.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  27.1  25.0  24.6  17.1  23.3  30.3  49.1  N  N  N  N  F  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          4.4  -0.7   1.0   2.7  -3.9 -18.3 -56.6 -72.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  58.0  91.0 102.0  63.0   9.0  24.0   9.0  N  N  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  46.0  47.0  51.0  51.0  55.0  58.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -9.0   7.0   6.0 -41.0 -31.0 -95.0-103.0  N  F  N  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons