Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10     61.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  29.6  25.6  20.2  18.0  25.8  43.9  41.4  N  N  N  N  F  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]          7.7   9.3  14.4  11.0   0.0 -26.3 -57.7 -64.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  93.0 102.0  81.0  75.0  35.0  38.0  27.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  43.0  44.0  47.0  49.0  49.0  53.0  58.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   2.0   3.0 -23.0 -24.0 -44.0 -97.0 -22.0  F  N  N VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons