Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211002 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.30     59.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  22.3  17.3  15.6  20.1  19.0  41.0  39.7  N  N  F  F  N  N VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         12.7  14.4  11.0   6.1  -7.0 -36.6 -59.1 -67.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  99.0 103.0  42.0   0.0  42.0  17.0  59.0  F  F  F  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  45.0  49.0  51.0  47.0  51.0  59.0  59.0 VU VU  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   6.0 -17.0 -21.0 -32.0 -50.0 -87.0 -27.0  U  N VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons