Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211002 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.80     58.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  18.1  14.7  15.9  22.7  33.4  50.3  25.7  N  F  F  F  N  U VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         19.4  14.3   9.6   5.0 -16.2 -35.3 -56.3 -64.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0  82.0  56.0  48.0  26.0  41.0  49.0  16.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  50.0  50.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  60.0  50.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0 -18.0 -31.0 -30.0 -25.0 -46.0 -18.0 -19.0  N VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons