Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211003 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.90     57.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  15.2  15.0  22.5  24.3  44.7  39.2  21.2  N  F  F  N  N VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         19.3  14.6   7.2   0.4 -32.3 -50.7 -58.8 -59.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  57.0  62.0   5.0  22.0   2.0  43.0  23.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  52.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  57.0  50.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -25.0 -27.0 -30.0 -35.0 -36.0 -36.0  -6.0 -21.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons