Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211003 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.80     56.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  16.0  23.6  27.3  39.8  53.8  28.7  29.5  F  F  N  N  U VU  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.6  22.2  11.7  -1.3 -29.1 -39.2 -44.8 -44.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  77.0  12.0  21.0  47.0  49.0  35.0  26.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  49.0  50.0  53.0  58.0  43.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -27.0 -26.0 -44.0 -39.0 -59.0   7.0  -5.0 -19.0 VF VF VF VF VF  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons