Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211003 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.30     55.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  27.1  26.7  32.6  49.4  38.6  27.9  40.3  F  N  N  U VU  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0  20.4   2.8 -10.9 -31.3 -37.8 -38.6 -40.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  18.0  19.0  35.0 -13.0  79.0  13.0  71.0  N  U  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  50.0  50.0  58.0  48.0  46.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -32.0 -20.0 -22.0 -18.0  16.0 -23.0 -42.0  F VF VF VF VF  U VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons