Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211004 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.70     52.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  31.8  45.5  52.4  45.9  20.7  32.5  38.8  N  U VU VU VU  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         14.2   1.7 -17.3 -32.3 -40.3 -41.6 -43.8 -45.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  30.0  71.0 -11.0  52.0  24.0  11.0  42.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  52.0  59.0  47.0  48.0  58.0  61.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0   2.0 -30.0   4.0  -2.0   0.0 -26.0 -25.0 VF  N VF  N  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons