Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211004 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.90     49.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  36.3  53.6  56.2  22.5  27.6  42.6  33.4  N  U VU VU  N  N VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -4.1  -8.4 -31.9 -37.9 -42.7 -43.0 -44.4 -45.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  71.0  -4.0  41.0  19.0  38.0  50.0  78.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  59.0  57.0  41.0  51.0  57.0  67.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -27.0  -3.0   6.0   4.0 -21.0 -26.0 -14.0  F VF  N  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons