Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211004 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.40     47.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.8  54.0  62.8  46.6  24.3  33.0  38.1  27.5  U VU VU VU  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        -12.3 -24.1 -30.7 -33.9 -37.8 -38.8 -41.1 -41.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0   8.0  51.0  54.0  42.0  18.0  67.0  70.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  58.0  56.0  46.0  50.0  56.0  62.0  67.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0  35.0  15.0  -9.0 -23.0 -29.0 -25.0  -5.0 VF VU  U  F VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons