Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211004 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     43.80     43.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.6  54.1  47.0  22.8  34.7  44.5  37.0  30.4 VU VU VU  N  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        -23.4 -29.2 -30.8 -32.7 -33.5 -35.8 -35.9 -37.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  24.0  62.0  40.0  38.0  38.0  69.0  58.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  50.0  42.0  55.0  59.0  70.0  74.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  43.0   0.0  -3.0 -27.0 -33.0  -4.0  10.0  F VU  N  N VF VF  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons