Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211005 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     46.30     40.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        50.6  41.2  25.9  28.3  39.7  38.8  29.5  23.8 VU VU  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        -22.4 -27.7 -27.5 -27.7 -27.7 -30.8 -31.5 -33.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  77.0  26.0  25.0   7.0  52.0  64.0  47.0  U  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  49.0  44.0  50.0  53.0  59.0  64.0  79.0  N  U VU  U  U  U  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  24.0   5.0   0.0  -7.0 -22.0 -24.0   0.0   6.0 VU  N  N  F VF VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons