Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL182021 211005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     50.00     39.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    157.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.0  28.3  25.3  32.4  40.3  30.0  31.7  20.7 VU  N  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        -24.2 -26.2 -26.0 -25.6 -26.3 -26.2 -27.3 -28.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  55.0  37.0  29.0  46.0  46.0  56.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  42.0  44.0  54.0  57.0  67.0  71.0  80.0  U VU VU  U  U  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  -3.0 -17.0 -25.0 -28.0 -12.0  25.0 -11.0  N  N VF VF VF  F VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons