Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192021 210924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.10     64.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  31.1  28.6  32.7  29.1  36.5  36.5  36.5  U  U  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  20.0  21.0  33.0  22.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.5 102.4 102.4 102.4 100.5  96.6  96.6  96.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  26.0  51.0  13.0  -9.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  52.0  52.0  51.0  53.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  14.0   7.0  15.0  17.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  N  U  N  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.5%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons