Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192021 210925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.20     65.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  27.9  28.2  32.5  29.2  29.2  29.2  29.2  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  15.0  19.0  20.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.4 104.4 104.4 104.4 100.5 100.5 100.5 100.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  51.0  19.0 -14.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  50.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   6.0  10.0  12.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.3%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%