Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192021 210925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.40     65.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  29.6  34.2  31.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  16.0  21.0  23.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.4 107.4 107.4 109.4 103.5 103.5 103.5 103.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  23.0   8.0  -1.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   9.0  15.0  14.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  22.0  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons