Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192021 210925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30     65.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  34.0  29.7  28.6  28.6  28.6  28.6  28.6  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  19.0  29.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.4 107.4 107.4 105.5 105.5 105.5 105.5 105.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0   8.0   1.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  52.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  14.0  13.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        0.4%        1.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons