Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL192021 210925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30     64.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.9  31.9  31.4  29.9  29.9  29.9  29.9  29.9  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  12.0  15.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.5 106.6 104.8 103.0 103.0 103.0 103.0 103.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  21.0  43.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  13.0  22.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons