Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 210929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.10     25.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  20.5  19.7  21.9  27.1  34.2  38.2  44.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  19.0  20.0  17.0  11.0  10.0  13.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 127.0 115.7 107.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   179.0 141.0 135.0 146.0  89.0  69.0  17.0  47.0 VF VF VF VF  F  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  59.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -13.0 -11.0  -6.0   0.0   8.0   8.0  16.0  F VF  F  F  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        3.1%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h       23.2%       35.4%       29.3%
 30kt / 24h        8.2%       17.3%       12.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%       17.3%       10.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%       17.3%       10.1%
 45kt / 36h       12.0%       30.6%       21.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.6%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h        9.3%       14.1%       11.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%        8.4%        6.9%
 65kt / 72h       10.7%        7.0%        8.9%