Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 210930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.20     26.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  19.3  22.2  26.4  32.6  31.0  40.1  42.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  20.0  16.0  13.0  11.0   9.0  16.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 124.6 111.5 105.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   144.0 160.0 172.0 101.0  74.0  49.0  35.0  43.0 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0  -6.0  -1.0   6.0   6.0  12.0  19.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        4.9%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h       25.6%       42.0%       33.8%
 30kt / 24h        8.5%       22.3%       15.4%
 35kt / 24h        6.2%       22.3%       14.3%
 40kt / 24h        6.2%       22.2%       14.2%
 45kt / 36h       11.7%       35.5%       23.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.5%        7.2%
 55kt / 48h       10.2%       15.4%       12.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        9.1%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h        6.1%        6.4%        6.3%