Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 210930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.50     26.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  23.3  27.4  29.9  34.0  32.8  39.0  36.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  18.0  14.0  11.0  10.0  10.0  14.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0 112.9 104.4  98.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   139.0 146.0 130.0  62.0  34.0  17.0  27.0  33.0 VF VF  F  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  65.0  61.0  57.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0  -6.0  -1.0   4.0   9.0   5.0  12.0  18.0  F  F  N  N  U  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        5.9%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       21.8%       37.9%       29.9%
 30kt / 24h        7.9%       21.5%       14.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       21.5%       12.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.0%       20.8%       12.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.7%       26.1%       16.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.8%        4.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        8.7%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        4.2%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        3.2%        2.2%