Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 210930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.70     29.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  31.7  31.8  36.9  35.9  36.4  38.7  47.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   9.0   8.0   8.0  13.0  16.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 124.3 122.0 119.6 108.6 102.4  98.5  96.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  90.0  52.0  57.0  29.0   8.0  45.0  26.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  58.0  55.0  51.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   4.0   6.0   6.0   9.0  15.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        6.8%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.2%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%