Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 211001 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30     30.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.7  30.9  34.8  34.8  34.0  38.5  40.9  48.5  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  13.0  11.0   8.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.0 109.6 107.3 102.9  96.5  90.5  88.5  84.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  83.0  60.0  61.0  22.0  25.0  52.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  55.0  50.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0   9.0  13.0  11.0  19.0  17.0  22.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.4%        3.4%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h        7.7%       13.4%       10.5%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%        6.0%        5.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%        6.0%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        4.0%        6.0%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        6.8%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%