Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 211001 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30     33.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  37.3  33.9  30.7  31.0  37.0  43.7  32.6  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0  12.0  20.0  27.0  30.0   8.0  10.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.6 102.3  95.7  93.6  87.4  85.5  81.6  81.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  21.0  24.0  -4.0  23.0  25.0  72.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  49.0  47.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  10.0  15.0  21.0  16.0  U  N  N  N  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        1.2%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        5.0%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        1.9%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        1.9%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        1.9%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%