Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 211001 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80     33.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.1  33.2  28.3  28.1  33.9  41.9  39.7  31.0  U  U  N  N  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  18.0  26.0  27.0  19.0   9.0  19.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.1  97.9  93.6  91.5  85.5  85.5  81.6  83.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  23.0  -9.0  22.0  51.0  32.0   3.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  53.0  49.0  44.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   7.0   9.0  16.0  19.0  15.0  14.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        0.7%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.2%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.2%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%