Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 211002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     35.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     42.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  28.1  27.7  32.5  39.9  41.7  31.0  35.3  U  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  29.0  35.0  27.0  17.0  20.0  15.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 103.6  99.4  99.4  95.5  91.6  95.5 101.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  48.0  48.0  56.0  50.0  -3.0   0.0  -7.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  53.0  48.0  42.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0  13.0  14.0  20.0  23.0  15.0  13.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%