Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 211002 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70     36.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     35.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  28.0  32.0  38.0  40.5  35.0  33.2  26.2  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  29.0  25.0  20.0  12.0  27.0   9.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 111.5 109.4 109.4 103.5 101.6 107.4 113.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  50.0  55.0  35.0  75.0   2.0 -13.0 -52.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  59.0  57.0  55.0  49.0  43.0  41.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  12.0  13.0  16.0  22.0  12.0  18.0   9.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%