Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 211002 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     37.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     45.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  28.2  37.3  40.1  32.9  27.8  27.3  27.3  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  27.0  20.0  22.0  18.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.5 114.4 114.4 112.4 106.6 108.5 114.4 114.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  74.0  75.0  52.0   7.0  15.0 -29.0 -29.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  39.0  38.0  38.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  12.0  17.0  17.0  20.0  13.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        0.2%        0.6%