Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 211003 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     38.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  37.5  39.0  36.5  33.9  32.4  26.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  20.0  20.0  12.0  29.0  10.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 114.4 110.5 108.5 106.6 112.4 120.7 120.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  48.0  43.0  46.0 -21.0   6.0 -44.0 -44.0  N  N  N  N VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  51.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  42.0  37.0  37.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  19.0  18.0  20.0  18.0  18.0  13.0  13.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons