Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 211003 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60     39.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  38.3  39.5  39.7  31.9  31.1  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  13.0  12.0  21.0  11.0  12.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 110.5 106.6 106.6 110.5 116.5 122.9 122.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  64.0  66.0   3.0   8.0 -43.0  26.0  26.0  U  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  47.0  47.0  42.0  42.0  35.0  35.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  19.0  20.0  14.0  18.0  16.0  12.0  12.0 VU VU VU  U VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        0.5%        0.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons