Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 211003 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30     40.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.0  37.6  35.6  32.2  33.3  26.5  26.6  26.6  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  13.0  17.0  29.0  16.0  21.0  44.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        105.5 103.5 101.6 101.6 107.4 113.6 124.6 124.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  49.0  -8.0  -4.0 -11.0 -55.0 -39.0 -39.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  45.0  44.0  42.0  38.0  32.0  32.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  20.0  12.0  13.0  21.0  14.0  10.0  10.0 VU VU  U  U VU  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons