Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 211003 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60     40.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  36.9  34.6  33.7  31.1  23.1  23.1  23.1  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  13.0  26.0  30.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5 108.5 106.6 108.5 112.4 118.6 118.6 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0 -15.0   9.0  15.0 -30.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  47.0  44.0  42.0  43.0  37.0  37.0  37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  12.0  14.0  18.0  17.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        0.5%        0.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons