Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL202021 211004 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80     43.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  33.3  33.3  33.3  33.3  33.3  33.3  33.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5 113.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   39.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0  37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        0.2%        1.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons