Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212021 211031 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.50     46.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  26.2  25.1  28.1  37.9  30.5  19.6  18.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.7  52.0  52.0  49.8  47.7  47.7  46.7  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0  29.0 -41.0 -41.0  -6.0  67.0   5.0  33.0  U  N VU VU  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  60.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   3.0 VF  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons