Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212021 211031 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.50     43.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  21.9  31.7  37.4  27.0  20.2  19.3  20.2  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         48.8  49.8  52.0  55.5  59.2  52.0  40.9  29.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -23.0 -33.0   1.0   8.0  71.0   4.0  26.0  35.0 VU VU  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  51.0  52.0  53.0  60.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   5.0   7.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons