Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212021 211101 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.10     42.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  21.0  18.6  17.8  17.1  17.0  19.3  27.5  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.2  57.0  53.8  50.7  40.0  32.1  26.2  21.3  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  50.0  29.0  30.0  31.0  10.0  11.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  58.0  61.0  61.0  65.0  62.0  55.0  53.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   1.0   6.0   6.0  -3.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons