Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212021 211102 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.80     41.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  19.4  16.0  17.2  16.0  18.6  23.9  35.3  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.7  44.7  40.0  35.8  27.1  20.7  17.7  15.9  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  39.0  33.0  36.0  17.0  35.0  78.0  85.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  58.0  58.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   6.0   3.0   6.0   0.0  -8.0 -30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons