Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212021 211102 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.20     40.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  16.5  17.1  13.8  16.3  21.5  27.3  42.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  36.6  31.9  27.7  22.3  18.7  17.7  18.7  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  47.0  34.0  16.0  43.0  50.0  61.0   3.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  58.0  55.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   2.0   5.0   0.0  -3.0 -13.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons