Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212021 211104 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.20     39.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  19.1  21.4  23.9  32.6  26.3  16.7  10.2  F  N  N  N  U  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         24.6  22.3  21.7  20.7  22.8  29.7  34.2  34.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0   9.0  67.0  86.0  28.0  27.0  -1.0  24.0  N  U  N  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  45.0  38.0  41.0  51.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -8.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons