Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212021 211104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     41.70     39.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  23.4  24.4  30.3  23.9  16.9   9.6  35.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         20.7  20.1  21.7  23.4  30.4  35.0  31.9  20.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  74.0  60.0   4.0  31.0 -10.0   0.0  95.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  49.0  46.0  38.0  39.0  51.0  55.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -9.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0 -27.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons