Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212021 211104 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.30     39.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  26.6  31.9  32.2  18.9  12.8  22.5  55.2  N  N  U  U  N  F  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         24.6  25.1  27.8  30.8  37.6  38.4  31.4  21.3 VU VU VU VU  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  26.0  19.0  52.0  18.0 -19.0   5.0  85.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  47.0  43.0  39.0  37.0  45.0  58.0  50.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -8.0 -10.0  -6.0   0.0   2.0 -22.0 -77.0  N  F  F  F  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons