Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212021 211105 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.30     39.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  31.5  32.8  26.6  17.3  16.0  30.0  68.6  N  U  U  N  F  F  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         21.2  22.8  26.4  30.4  34.2  34.2  22.8  12.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  38.0  72.0  -4.0   3.0  12.0  70.0  25.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  44.0  40.0  38.0  39.0  52.0  52.0  43.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -9.0  -3.0  -5.0   1.0   2.0 -40.0 -82.0  F  F  N  F  N  N VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons