Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212021 211105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.10     38.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  32.3  27.6  18.0  13.3  17.8  67.0  74.4  U  U  N  F  F  F VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         22.3  25.2  29.1  32.6  36.6  30.4  16.8   7.3 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  69.0  22.0 -18.0  31.0  30.0  17.0  35.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  40.0  38.0  41.0  43.0  53.0  43.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -4.0  -4.0   0.0   8.0  -7.0 -34.0 -87.0  F  F  F  N  U  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons