Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212021 211105 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.60     37.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  14.8  12.1  12.1  12.9  59.0  79.6  65.2  N  F  F  F  F VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         31.9  35.0  35.8  37.4  30.4  16.8   5.6   2.3 VU VU  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0   3.0   3.0  -4.0   8.0  38.0  15.0  53.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  42.0  42.0  43.0  51.0  39.0  39.0  41.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   1.0   3.0  -2.0 -28.0-111.0-136.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons