Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL212021 211106 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.40     37.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  13.1  12.5  14.9  37.2  76.7  78.2  53.2  F  F  F  F  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.8  37.4  36.6  36.6  20.7   8.2   1.8  -3.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0  -2.0   2.0 -12.0  53.0  47.0  72.0  87.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   38.0  39.0  41.0  48.0  43.0  38.0  42.0  63.0 VU VU VU  U VU VU VU  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   4.0 -24.0 -80.0-109.0  53.0  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons