Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012021 210509 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.3  36.3  38.9  34.3  42.1  44.8  59.2  62.1  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  15.0  14.0  12.0   6.0   2.0   2.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 125.1 116.5 108.5  96.0  91.1  86.5  89.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   117.0 119.0  96.0  62.0  27.0  40.0  20.0 -30.0  F  F  F  N  U  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  56.0  51.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        4.5%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        3.5%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%